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Week ahead: week of economic revelations 

February 13, 2024

As the markets recalibrate from the recent rate and dollar surge, all eyes this week turn to the US CPI and retail sales data for January, potentially marking a pivotal moment for future rate adjustments. With the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations pushed further into the year, the upcoming reports on inflation and consumer spending are keenly awaited for clues on the economic trajectory and its impact on currency markets. 

US Economic Outlook: a soft landing? 

The upcoming CPI report for Tuesday is expected to reveal a slight deceleration in inflation, with headline inflation anticipated at 2.9% year-over-year, a decline from December’s 3.4%, while core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is predicted to slow to 3.7% from 3.9%, largely influenced by decreasing used car prices, indicating a gradual path towards inflation normalization. Additionally, retail sales data set to release on Thursday may indicate a slight contraction, with forecasts suggesting a 0.2% drop, potentially due to subdued auto sales, signaling a modest beginning to the year for consumer spending. Despite this, broader economic indicators such as industrial production project an economy expanding slightly above the Federal Reserve’s long-term sustainable rate. 

Global context: inflation and growth dynamics 

Internationally, the UK’s CPI data and Q4 GDP reports from the UK and Japan will offer additional insights into global inflation trends and economic health. The expected fluctuations in inflation rates, particularly with the anticipated sharp declines in year-over-year comparisons for the UK, eurozone, and Canada, will be critical for currency traders monitoring the global economic pulse. 

Implications for currency markets 

For currency markets, particularly forex traders at VT Markets, these economic indicators are crucial. A softer-than-expected CPI and weak retail sales could cap US rates, potentially halting the dollar’s rally. Moreover, global economic data will provide further context for the forex market, influencing currency pairs and trading strategies. 

As we navigate through these economic releases, traders should remain vigilant, adapting strategies to accommodate the evolving market landscape. The anticipated data not only offers insights into the US economy’s health but also shapes expectations for central bank policies across the globe. 

Stay tuned to VT Markets for real-time analysis and insights on how these developments impact currency markets and trading opportunities. 

Conclusion: a week of economic revelations 

The week ahead promises to be a crucible of economic revelations, with US CPI and retail sales data at the forefront. As we dissect these indicators, their broader implications for interest rate policies, currency markets, and global economic health come into sharper focus. For market participants, these moments are not just about interpreting numbers but about understanding the narratives they weave and the market directions they suggest. In the ever-evolving world of forex trading, such insights are invaluable, guiding strategies in a landscape where precision and foresight are paramount.