The Chinese yuan strengthened sharply against the dollar on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since March 12, as traders fled U.S. assets in favour of Asian currencies. Offshore yuan (USDCNH) jumped to 7.23508 before easing to 7.21636, while the onshore yuan (USDCNY) touched 7.2203, gaining 0.69% intraday.

The rally reflects a broader rotation into Asian markets. Hong Kong’s dollar (USDHKD), Taiwan’s dollar (USDTWD), and the Korean won all saw gains as dollar positioning unwound rapidly. The shift comes on the back of diminishing returns from carry trades, where traders had previously borrowed low-yielding Asian currencies to fund long-dollar positions. As the greenback weakens, this strategy has lost its appeal.

Meanwhile, the PBOC’s daily midpoint was set at 7.2008—only marginally stronger than the previous fixing—signalling Beijing’s cautious approach. Standard Chartered’s Becky Liu said the fixing shows reluctance to allow rapid appreciation, especially with Chinese exporters facing margin pressure and listed firms preparing dividend payments in foreign currency.

President Trump’s Sunday statement that the U.S. is negotiating trade terms with several countries, including China, added to the risk-on momentum. China responded by saying it is evaluating the U.S. offer for talks, though it warned against “extortion and coercion.”

تحلیل تکنیکال

The USDCNH-ECN 15-minute chart shows a strong rebound from the session low of 7.18444, with price action surging to a high of 7.23508 before retreating slightly and closing around 7.21636. This movement marks a notable short-term bullish breakout following a lengthy period of sideways consolidation. The sharp rise suggests renewed buying interest, potentially triggered by broader dollar strength or yuan weakness.

عکس: یوان تضعیف می‌شود در حالی که USDCNH بالای 7.23 افزایش می‌یابد و سپس به عقب برمی‌گردد، که در اپلیکیشن VT Markets دیده می‌شود

From a technical perspective, the moving averages (5, 10, and 30-period) are aligned in a bullish configuration, confirming upward momentum. The price is currently testing the 10-period moving average as a dynamic support zone, which may determine the next directional move. The MACD indicator also supports the recent bullish sentiment, with a positive crossover and a strong upward histogram during the rally. However, the diminishing size of the green MACD bars hints at weakening momentum, suggesting that the rally may be cooling, at least temporarily.

Immediate support lies near the 7.2100 area, with more substantial backing around 7.1840, the prior low. On the upside, a clean break and hold above 7.2200 could revive bullish momentum and set the stage for a retest of 7.2350 and beyond. For now, the pullback appears to be healthy profit-taking within an overall bullish structure.

تحلیلگران نسبت به اینکه یوان تا کجا می‌تواند پیش برود، نظرهای متفاوتی دارند. کریستوفر وونگ از بانک OCBC تاکید کرد که امیدهای کاهش تعرفه‌ها، افزایش منطقه‌ای را تقویت کرده است، اما پکن ممکن است هنوز بخواهد از افزایش سریع یوان جلوگیری کند تا رقابت تجاری را حفظ کند.

پیش‌بینی محتاطانه

یوان ممکن است در کوتاه‌مدت به طور ملایم تقویت شود اگر ضعف دلار ادامه یابد و لحن مذاکرات تجاری همچنان سازگار باقی بماند. با این حال، هر گونه تغییر در لحن یا موضع قاطع‌تر PBOC می‌تواند افزایش را متوقف کند. معامله‌گران باید سطح 7.2350 را به عنوان یک سقف بالقوه تحت نظر داشته باشند مگر اینکه شرایط کلان‌اقتصادی گسترده تغییر کند.